PRO FOOTBALL — January 24
N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS
AFC Championship
(Colts -8.5, Total 40) — [private] Colts coach Jim Caldwell may find out he made two mistakes when he laid down and threw the game four weeks ago against these New York Jets – (1) Such a thing helped to allow the Jets to get into the playoffs in the first place, and (2) it supplied Rex Ryan’s team with the confidence of knowing that it could sock these Colts in the mouth – at Lucas Oil Stadium no less – and come out on top. I don’t think (2) is all that hollow, because the Jets were within 15-10, despite 192 passing yards by Peyton Manning, at the time of Caldwell’s surrender.
Considering the limitations of the Jets passing game with rookie Mark Sanchez at the controls, and their reticence to place the whole thing on his shoulders, you can expect that Indianapolis is going to try and get off to enough of an early lead that they will make the Jets do some things they don’t want to do on offense. I have sincere doubts that is going to happen, though, because Ryan will come out with defensive looks that are confusing enough to prevent that at the outset. Don’t forget also that Manning has never been altogether comfortable facing 3-4 alignments, and Ryan will fly in the face of convention on many occasions, deciding to rush him instead of defending him (despite the fact that Manning’s been sacked only ten times), and has the luxury to do so because of the potency of Jet corners Darelle Revis and Lito Sheppard. The Jets may give him some nibbles, but the intermediate and long-range passes will be difficult against a secondary that has permitted just 4.9 yards an attempt. This might create a bit of a conundrum for Indy, which can’t seem to run the football, no matter how hard they try.
The Colts succeeded with their intended strategy last week against Baltimore, but the Ravens still got over four and a half yards a carry. For the season, Indy’s defensive front has posted a 4.3 ypc against, and let’s be clear – if “shortening the game” is the path to a win, or at least a cover – the Jets can do that better than any team in the league because with their big offensive line, stocked with three Pro Bowl selections (D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Alan Faneca and Nick Mangold) has been able to grind down most opponents. Just taking a sampling of these “must” games they’ve had to play, New York has rambled for 200 yards a game over the last four, and with the emergence of Shonn Greene (263 yards in the playoffs) they’ll always have a fresh runner in the game.
The Colts, with Manning, have just an 8-8 record in the playoffs, but against those teams who employ a 3-4 defense, they are just 2-5 straight-up in the post-season, and Manning has nine TD’s and nine interceptions. By the way, against Baltimore’s 3-4 last week, he averaged 5.6 yards an attempt, far off his mark of 7.9 for the regular season and 7.7 for his career.
Who’s to argue that the Jets, who are 7-1, both straight-up and against the number, in their last eight, aren’t playing every bit as well as the Colts right now, if not better? Certainly they are a lot more confident now then they were as a 7-7 team with their post-season fate in the balance on the previous trip to Indianapolis. And Sanchez has thrown just one pick in the last two games, and isn’t even playing like a rookie anymore.
Aside from that, how can you not appreciate the poetic justice involved with a possible win by the Jets, and won’t that teach the rookie coach (Caldwell, not Ryan) a lesson about rolling over and playing dead while charging fans the price of admission? As for the other rookie coach, his prediction at the start of the playoffs – that his team should be favored to go to the Super Bowl – may turn out to be the most prescient since that other Big Apple icon, Joe Namath.
Defense. Running game. Brash and confident coach, with a gutless coach on the other side. That’s a pretty good formula for keeping it inside a number like this.
THE PLAY: N.Y. JETS +8.5 ***
(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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