PRO FOOTBALL — January 24

MINNESOTA at NEW ORLEANS
NFC Championship
(Saints -3.5, Total 54) — [private] To say that both of these teams were incredibly impressive last week would be understating the case. For the Saints, the “wild card” emerged in the person of Reggie Bush, who got loose on a number of plays, including a touchdown on a punt return. For the Vikings, well, Brett Favre has been pretty hot all year, and last week he found Sidney Rice, who has become a stud under his leadership, for 141 yards and three touchdowns. Everybody is fully aware of what Drew Brees can do, with 37 TD’s and only 11 picks, with almost 71% completions, which is better than last year’s figure.

Including the playoff game, Favre has also thrown 37 TD passes with just seven interceptions, and he really cooled down the Dallas Cowboys, who seemed to be sailing along to the Super Bowl in a lot of people’s minds, tossing four scoring passes. One of his strengths is that he can spread it around, not just to Rice, but to targets like Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin and tight end Visanthe Shancoe, who is a great option for him in the red zone.

One of the things about the Vikings is that it is impossible to overplay to the run or to the pass. As for the Saints, we’re not so sure. New Orleans, which had an extremely potent running game at the start of the season, then tailed off in that regard, got back to more balance in the win over Arizona, with 171 yards on the ground, Do they need the balance? That’s a good question, because the “Williams Wall”might prevent that, as the Vikings have allowed less than four yards a carry and 87 yards a game, which was the second lowest figure in the league.

The Saints defense – was it as good as we were led to believe? Maybe not, as they allowed 5.5 yards a play, which was middle of the pack at best, and the 4.5 yard a carry they yielded does not look like a good sign against someone like Adrian Peterson. Upon close examination, that may be the major difference between these teams – Minnesota has the go-to running back, and in fact, though you would get arguments in Nashville about Chris Johnson, the best at carrying the mail in the NFL. Bush averaged 5.6 yards a pop and 7.1 yards a catch, but he was not nearly as prolific, and did not break lot of big plays during the regular season.

Let’s not get completely delusional about Minnesota and its chances – the Saints have won seven games at home this season, and they have all been by eight points or more (with the Pats, Jet and Giants among the victims) while Minnesota’s toughest moments were all on the road, dropping decisions to the Steelers, Cards, Panthers and Bears. What we think we’ll see here is a game that is not dominated by either team, but instead one where they will trust the ball in the hands of two experienced, accurate quarterbacks with multiple receivers at their disposal, and where it may not be decided until the last possession. In a game like that, it may be most useful to look at the total.

THE PLAY: OVER 54 ***

(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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