PRO FOOTBALL — January 10
GREEN BAY at ARIZONA
(Packers -1.5, Total 47.5) — [private] I suppose, in a way, it is worthwhile to review last week’s game, where the Packers ran all over the Cardinals en route to a 33-7 victory, if for no other reason than that it produced some casualties on the part of this Arizona team. Anquan Boldin is listed as questionable, as he has a bothersome knee and ankle. Larry Fitzgerald said, If I were to be a betting man and, knowing his toughness, I know he’s going to give it a go.” That’s fine, but will he be able to contribute to the three-receiver effect that has made the Cardinals’ offense so difficult for others to defend? If not, can Early Doucet, who has just 17 receptions on the season, make up for it? I think not. Calais Campbell sustained a thumb injury and is also questionable. Another injury that looms critical is that of cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, whose knee is banged up and will leave a big hole open in that secondary if he can’t play.
At least the Cards got farther than last year’s Super Bowl opponent, the Steelers, who missed the playoffs altogether.
If you look at the fundamentals of this thing, you’re maybe asking yourself why a team that is the defending NFC champs – a team that went through this tournament last season and has a QB who is former Super Bowl MVP – would be a home underdog to a wild card team with a quarterback who is making his first playoff start.
Well, Green Bay is on a 20-7-1 ATS run as a road team, and closed out the season very strong, with six straight covers, and if they are just one last-second play away from having won their last eight. Aaron Rodgers, who was under siege earlier in the season, has become one of the best protected quarterbacks in the league, sacked just seven times in his last six games.
I don’t know if I want to be swayed by the number. The Packers had the league-leading +24 turnover ratio, while Arizona stood at a minus-7. That is quite a difference, and it makes sense. If Warner doesn’t have the full compliment of receivers, he may have to rely on the running game a little more, and that is perhaps playing into Green Bay’s hands (3.6 ypc, 83 ypg allowed). Interestingly, only a handful of teams permitted more than the Cardinals’ 4.5 yards a carry, so we’re going to give Ryan Grant (1253 yards) a better chance to establish a ground attack than the Beanie Wells/Tim Hightower combo.
It is true that Green Bay’s 44-point effort at Arizona was in the pre-season, and the 33-point game played kind of like a pre-season game, but you get to thinking there could be some style advantages. And at least the Packers, who have traveled back and forth again this week, are hardly strangers to the stadium in Glendale, set for their third game there in the last four and a half months. They will have played there so much, they’ll practically BE students at the University of Phoenix! Hey, they may have a healthy contingent of fans there as well; one writer estimated that they may have had almost 40% of the crowd last weekend.
THE PLAY: GREEN BAY -1.5 ***
(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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