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COLLEGE BASKETBALL — March 29

NCAA Tournament @ Phoenix - West Regional final
XAVIER (+6) vs. UCLA (Total 130) — UCLA has been in this habit where they have been able to flick the switch on to put away an opponent, but this has resulted in some close calls, going all the way back to the early part of the non-conference season, when the Bruins came from 18 points down in the first half to beat Davidson. This unquestionably demonstrates some quality in the UCLA squad, but it doesn’t say much for their ability to cover pointspreads against good opponents, who aren’t so quick to let a team off the hook when they don’t play for the entire 40 minutes. The Bruins are a tough defensive squad, to be sure, but they are going to have quite a bit of difficulty playing “lockdown” against a Xavier team that has six players averaging between 9.8 and 12.4 points a game. And these fellows are versatile, like 6′9″ forward/center Josh Duncan, who might be able to force Kevin Love to come further out to guard him, thus mitigating some of the freshman’s shot-blocking ability, which has been in abundance in this tourney. Each team possesses its conference’s defensive player of the year (Russell Westbrook, Stanley Burrell) who ought to do a decent job on the opposing point guard, and though we wouldn’t say Xavier had an edge in that department, the return to health of Drew Lavender makes the Musketeers’ backcourt much more competitive with its Bruin counterparts. After lessons learned in last year’s disappointment against Ohio State, it’s going to be harder to break down this veteran squad. And since they make their free throws (75%) and take care of the ball, cheap edges will be hard for Ben Rowland’s team to come by. UCLA may advance to the Final Four, but it won’t be easy by any stretch.

JAY’S PLAY: XAVIER ***