PRO FOOTBALL — January 10
BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND
(Patriots -3.5, Total 43.5) — [private] Baltimore gave the appearance of not finishing the season too badly, as the Ravens gave up just 46 points in their last four games. However, three of those games were against teams that were offensively challenged (Oakland, Chicago, Detroit) and those are the kinds of teams Baltimore customarily feasts against. If you look at the games against teams with winning records, they defeated only a San Diego team that just hadn’t found its legs yet, and a Pittsburgh team that had Dennis Dixon at quarterback. There were also losses against the Bengals (twice), Vikings, Colts, Packers and Steelers, plus a defeat suffered at Foxborough on October 4, when the Patriots won a hard-fought 27-21 game. I’m not sure that is the kind of resume one can count on in going into Gillette Stadium again, facing a team that won all eight home games (5-3 ATS) there, and all of them by at least six points.
Injuries of course become an issue for the Pats, as Wes Welker, who’s had 346 catches the last three years, was injured in the season finale against Houston. So they will have to make it with Julian Edelman doing his best Welker imitation opposite Randy Moss. Edelman, the former quarterback at Kent State (like Josh Cribbs) was active when he was utilized, and he had ten catches against the Texans, but of course he does not bring all of what Welker brought to the table. There are other people around to help out, like Fred Taylor, who was fresh enough after sitting out 12 weeks with injury to score twice against Houston before New England kind of laid down.
Brady has an exceptional record at home in the playoffs, winning all eight times he’s taken snaps. He has also won 20 straight overall at Gillette. We don’t need to go into what kind of experience edge he has against Joe Flacco, who has been picked off just once in the last four games but had a 44% completion rate and a 50.8 quarterback rating in his three playoff starts last season, and was intercepted three times in the AFC title game at Pittsburgh. We grant that he has made progress, and John Harbaugh has given him more of the playbook, but is that enough to burn the Pats? He had 264 yards, one of his highest totals of the season, in the previous meeting but aired it out 47 times (just 5.6 yards an attempt).
There are arguments to be made for the Ravens. One, of course, is that Flacco is better with another year of experience. Another is that they still do a pretty good job stopping the run, and of course, can pound it with a deeper backfield that includes Pro Bowl performers Ray Rice and Le’Ron McCain, as well as Willis McGahee. In Harbaugh’s first year on the sidelines, he got his team through two playoff victories on the road – one of them against the #1 seed (Tennessee). Come to think of it, these aren’t bad arguments.
Baltimore is a team that will run right at the Pats, and there is little Bill Belichick is going to be able to do to outsmart that, because if he gets too cute, Flacco can get down the field. Teams can take Moss out of a game, and without Welker, that means Brady doesn’t have the reliable outlet with whom he’s developed so much timing over the last few years. When Welker was out of the lineup in the early going, the Jets sent a lot of the same blitzes Baltimore will send here and it was very uncomfortable for the former Super Bowl MVP. The Ravens could have easily won the first meeting between these two, and they have the capability of making up for it this time.
THE PLAY: BALTIMORE +3.5 ***
(All information is for news matter only; All games are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars. Lines are subject to change)
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